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Oct. 1 crop forecast

Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, Ohio's average corn yield is forecast at 166 bushels per acre, up one bushel from the previous month's forecast. Total grain production is forecast at 517.92 million bushels, up 23 percent from last year's state production total. Corn growers expect to harvest 3.12 million acres in 2009 unchanged from one year ago. Based on administrative data, planted acreage is estimated at 3.35 million acres, down 50,000 acres from the June estimate.

The 2009 average soybean yield for Ohio is forecast at 46 bushels per acre, down one bushel from last month's forecast, but 10 bushels above the 2008 average state yield. Total state production is forecast at 210.68 million bushels, up 31 percent from 2008. Harvested acreage is forecast at 4.58 million acres, up 100,000 acres from last year. Based on administrative data, planted acreage is estimated at 4.6 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate.

Alfalfa production in 2009 is forecast at 1.87 million tons, up 54 percent from last year. All other hay production is forecast at 1.65 million tons, up four percent from last year.

U.S. corn production is forecast at 13 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and eight percent higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 164.2 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from September and 10.3 bushels above last year. If realized, this yield will be the highest on record and total production will be second only to the record set in 2007.

Yield forecasts remained unchanged or increased from last month across the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Ohio Valley where warm, dry weather during much of September helped push the late-developing corn crop towards maturity. Light frost was reported in parts of the northern tier of the Great Plains and Corn Belt in late September. However, temperatures were not considered low enough to terminate crop growth.

Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several states and farmers now expect to harvest 79.3 million acres for grain, down one percent from the September forecast but one percent above 2008.

U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.25 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast and up 10 percent from last year. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.4 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from 2008. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record. Compared with last month, yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all states except Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, and New York.

The largest decrease in yield from the September forecast is expected in Mississippi where persistent rain during the last two weeks of the month increased the potential impact of disease. Increases of two bushels are expected in Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Virginia. If realized, the forecasted yield in Alabama, Georgia, and Nebraska will be a record high and the forecasted yield in Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.6 million acres, down slightly from the previous estimate but up three percent from 2008.



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