13 factors in the coming food crisis

A baker throwing one extra into your bag of a dozen bagels is a good thing. But you may find yourself suffering from a mild case of triskaidekaphobia after checking out 13 factors that are converging to push the world towards a food crisis. Some might feel that talk about a food crisis is alarmist. But consider what you've read, heard, observed and experienced over the past couple years. It might change your thinking about what's in store for us.

In the United States food shortages seem remote, except for the occasional bare supermarket shelves the night before a major snowstorm. However, there are many problems threatening business as usual.

While the risk remains highest in poorer countries and those already dealing with marginal agricultural conditions, consumers in the West are going to see higher food prices at a minimum, with occasional food shortages quite possible.

What factors may contribute to a food crisis? Here's a quick list of the baker's dozen:

1. Energy shortages and prices: Modern agriculture is a highly distributed, petroleum-dependent affair. Farmers are very reliant on diesel-powered farm machinery. Most of the food we eat was grown in a place distant from us, processed at some other distant place, then shipped to our local store shelves.

2. Biofuels: Oil prices have risen into the painful range. Everyone is looking for global warming solutions. With these and other factors in mind, policy makers all seem to be gung-ho on biofuels as a home-grown, climate-friendly energy solution.

What effect will biofuels have on the food supply? Diversion of corn and soybeans from the food stream into biofuels production has already begun to put upward pressure on food prices. US farmland devoted to other crops will also be diverted to corn and soybean production in the future to increase the availability of biofuels feed stocks.

3. Global warming: USDA studies have shown that for every one degree increase in temperature there's a 10 percent drop in yield. A study in India found a slightly different relationship: A two degree C rise was shown to reduce yields by as much as 38 percent - even after adjusting for the offsetting effects of higher CO2 levels.

4. Fresh water shortages: Droughts, overpopulation and increased demand for fresh water are a serious concern. Watch what happens in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California over the next couple years.

5. Economic chaos: I pray the global financial system does not go "boom." The effect on food of a financial crash or a depression are obvious enough - many people will lack enough money to buy food. Also possible are disruptions in the global supply chain as the "liquidity crisis" curtails loan-dependent agricultural activities or as supply-chain companies go bankrupt. If serious economic chaos occurs it will be bad for all sectors, and food will not be an exception.

6. Higher population levels

7. Bad agricultural policy: Politicians support a policy of cheap, plentiful food. On its face, this is a pretty good idea. After all, who wants to starve just because the wheat crop was a bit off this year?

But what's good for the public and its food supply is not necessarily "good enough" for corporate profits, at least in the minds of corporate executives and shareholders; so agri-lobbyists ply politicians with intoxicating sums of campaign cash, paid trips, and other favors to shape agricultural policy in a way that is favorable to their bottom line.

What has resulted is industrial agriculture - a system of farming. This rise came at the expense of organic and other agricultural techniques that give us healthier food and a healthier environment - but with less potential for corporate monetization.

8. Soil degration: The big problems here is overexposing soil to wind and water erosion) and the use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers, which degrade the soil's ecosystem. This approach to farming is much like an athlete using steroids - the effect is initially impressive, but over time the drug threatens general health, and the end result is worse than the result one gets by sticking with more natural approaches.

9. The honeybee problem and loss of native pollinators. Many mainstream food crops, including almonds, peaches, apples, and blueberries, are highly depend on honeybees' pollination services for success. Many other crops partially depend on honeybees. Overall, one-third of US agricultural crops use honeybees for pollination.

10. Loss of crop varieties and genetic contamination.

11. Farmer shortages.

12. Fish declines. Scientists and fisherman agree on one thing - catches aren't what they used to be. Many of the large ocean fish species have declined significantly, and the fish that are being caught are much smaller in size than those caught a decade or two ago. A number of things are to blame - primarily overfishing, but also pollution, bycatch (waste), and destruction of coastal and ocean-floor breeding habitats.

13. General ignorance of food: How to grow it, store it: Western consumers in general have an huge number of food choices, most of them being offered to us by an amazing array of restaurants, food stores, and food corporations.

The downside of this "easy-food paradise" is that we have lost most of our understanding of where food comes from - how it is grown, stored, traded, processed, transported, marketed, and priced. When it comes to growing, storing, and cooking food for ourselves, few us have knowledge beyond the basics. And very few have a detailed understanding of the nutritional content of food and how smart food choices are critical to good nutrition and health.

So, these are the factors which are creating a pinch in the pantry and pain at the grocery check-out line.